Definition for : Emission scenario
A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively active (e.g. greenhouse gases, aerosols), based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces (such as demographic and socio-economic development, technological change) and their key relationships.
Concentration scenarios, derived from emission scenarios, are used as input into a climate model to compute climate projections.
In IPCC (1992) a set of emission scenarios was presented which were used as a basis for the climate projections in IPCC (1996). These emission scenarios are referred to as the IS92 scenarios. In the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (Nakic´enovic´ et al., 2000) new emission scenarios, the so called SRES scenarios, were published some of which were used, among others, as a basis for the climate projections presented in Chapter 9 of this Report. For the meaning of some terms related to these scenarios, see SRES scenarios.
